The July 2012 solar superstorm almost struck Earth. Source: NASA
A recent communication from NASA describes how close the Earth came to getting a debilitating blast from the Sun two years ago. A double coronal mass ejection (CME) narrowly missed the Earth, shooting out radiation that would have knocked out all telecommunications devices on the planet, along with all electrically powered equipment.
Described as a solar superstorm, the July 2012 CMEs would have caused lasting damage: "If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado. Although it somehow failed to make the news in 2012, the event was described in a paper produced by NASA scientists at the time entitled "A major solar eruptive event in July 2012: Defining extreme space weather scenarios".
"I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did," Baker said in the recent press release from NASA. "If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire."
A report by the National Research Council into the socio-economic impact of such an event warned of "extensive social and economic disruptions."
It went on to add, "Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected.
"Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly.
"Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina."
So what is the probability that a flare this big could actually hit Earth? Physicist Pete Riley published a recent paper in Space Weather called "On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events" in which he explained that there is a 12% chance that a flare of this magnitude will strike Earth in the next ten years.
And according to Ashley Dale, writing in Physics World, violent superstorms occur every 150 years - and we're five years overdue.
With odds like these, it may be a good idea to be prepared. According to advice available from the US Government, families should have a communications plan, and households should have emergency kits on hand. Check out the ready.gov website for more ways in which you can be prepared for an extreme space weather event. You can also keep an eye on solar storm warnings with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.
